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India could lose between seven and seventeen per cent of its income from farming because of climate
change, a new study has claimed.
Using data on weather and the economic success of farming to model the effect of future warming on the
predicted income from farming, Robert Mendelsohn of the Yale School
of Forestry and Environmental Studies and Apurva Sanghi of the World
Bank said the focus of their study was on the biological relationship
between weather and crop yield instead of the economic connection
between weather and farming revenue.
"Our forecast is lower, but I think it's also more realistic," says Mendelsohn. "By studying how well
farmers do financially, we take adaptation into account. The income
from farming will depend not only on the direct effect of the weather
on the crops and livestock but also on whatever the farmers do to
cope with this."
They predicted that Brazil could lose between ten and thirty per cent of its farming income under the same
scenario, and added that the difference between the countries is most
likely due to India's agriculture being less sensitive to
climate-dependent changes in rainfall.
However according to the World Bank, farming makes up a whopping 23 per cent of Indian GDP as opposed to
only six per cent of Brazilian GDP, so the country as a whole may be
hit harder by a more modest loss in income from agriculture.
If on the other Brazil and India do to adapt to climate change in the future, Mendelsohn believes that
switching to crops and livestock that can stand the heat is going to
be crucial.
Rachel Warren at the University of East Anglia's Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, UK, says she is
pleased to see an explicit study of India and Brazil, because too
many studies to date have focused on the US or Europe. (Source:
Economic Times)
August 18, 2008
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