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Geneva: There are strong indications that the developing countries' resolve to stand united during the mini-ministerial meeting is getting thinner and thinner. Developing countries together did not put up any stiff resistance during the discussions held so far. Brazil, leading the delegation of G-20, it seems, is keen for a compromised deal. The developed countries, particularly, the United States and European Union, have begun to build pressure on the developing countries to yield to their demands. The developed countries are all out to prove the big developing countries like Brazil and India as villain of the piece if the talks fail. Though the NAMA text attracted the most heated discussions, the talks at Geneva continue to progress at the rate of unequal and unfair terms as the developing countries are being asked to reduce their industrial tariff disproportionately.
The G-33 Co-coordinator has come under fire from negotiators, on compromising to the limited proposal acceptance at the negotiations. Applying all measures of pulls and pressures, developed countries are negotiating with the ACP and small economies threatening that if a deal do not go through, then food prices will go beyond control. Even the Four western African countries are coming to seal the deal on the current cotton initiative.
The current mini-ministerial meeting is being held without any transparency, as only few select NGOs are included in the crucial discussions. All major international NGOs have not been included in the current negotiations. As Kamal Nath, Indian Minister for Trade and Commerce is not present in Geneva for the mini-ministerial owing to important Parliament discussions back in India, it is felt that the developed countries are viewing it as an opportunity to strike a deal given the fact that G-20 and G-33 have hardly put up any resistance against the deal. The most blatant show of a rushed deal was witnessed in the case of text on services, which has been pushed by the Chair from report to the final text. The conclusion that is emerging is that all countries including India have accepted the service text, except Bolivia, Cuba and Nicaragua.
There have been some reports of the protest from the Geneva streets by the developed country farmers lamenting that the current draft will not yield to any development for farming interest as cuts will affect the rural development and lives of rural countryside. Tuesday's meeting is going to proceed in the green rooms after the ministers from all participating members assemble. The meetings and discussions are set to go late into the night till the final deal is done. There are clear moves to divide the developing country groups especially the G-33 countries to accept the low levels of Special Products and limited SSM. It is even likely that the General Council Meeting scheduled will pass without any decision and in the subsequent meeting the final deal will be put for the ministerial endorsement.
Even if the deal is sealed, the biggest objection will come from US as they need to pass the current deal with the Senate or the Congress and with election due next year the possibility of its acceptance looks very remote.
Centad Briefing from Geneva, 21 July 2008
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