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There was a 60 per cent chance that a world trade agreement will be reached upon by year-end, Britain's minister for international trade has said. “There's a 60-40 chance of a Doha deal,” Gareth Thomas said.
“Very significant issues need to be resolved, but we are closer to a deal now than at any other point for many years,” he said after his briefing on trade relations between India and the EU.
“There has been significant progress in [talks on] agriculture and Non-Agriculture Market Access,” he said, adding negotiators were working toward kickstarting talks in the week beginning May 19 to achieve a deal by year-end.
Thomas is the first trade minister of a major developed country who is optimistic about the conclusion of the long-stalled Doha Development Round being negotiated at the World Trade Organisation in Geneva by the end of the year.
Negotiators have been asked to work toward a year-end deal because failure to do so could set the entire process back by at least two years, the coming general elections in the US making 2009 a “non-year”.
Thomas said he met Indian Commerce and Industry Minister Kamal Nath at a meeting of the UN's trade and development agency UNCTAD in Ghana, Accra, and Nath was “absolutely positive” about striking a deal on the Doha talks.
WTO Director-General Pascal Lamy was “genuinely very optimistic in private,” he said, adding the main issue for European countries was “pace” -- the speed of negotiations, which needed to pick up.
Thomas also lauded an FTA presently being negotiated between India and the 27-nation EU but emphasised that it should follow a Doha deal -- although New Delhi has given its negotiators a year-end deadline for the FTA.
“It needs to be underpinned by the Doha agreement. We need fair international trade rules first,” the British minister said.
Thomas admitted that there still were sticking points around the two major issues at the WTO talks: agricultural sector subsidies doled out by rich countries and the reluctance of developing countries to further lower their industrial tariffs.
On Services, the third important strand at the Doha negotiations, Thomas said British Prime Minister Gordon Brown had recently discussed with US President Bush the need to move on Mode4 -- a key Indian demand that calls for rich nations to allow the free temporary movement of skilled workers across countries and regions. Britain was also calling on its EU partners to “give ground” on Mode4.
“An internal discussion is happening in Europe but I don't believe it will be a deal breaker,” he said. (thaindian.com)
April 25, 2008
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